Fitch Solutions expects introduction of quotas to tackle over-tourism by 2025

By the end of 2027, Fitch Solutions forecasts 1.58bn total departures worldwide, stronger than the 1.27bn recorded in 2019, pre-Covid.

Yayin.Az informs citing Fitch Solutions that over-tourism is a phenomenon that has developed over the last decade, and will become an even more pertinent issue out to 2050, as wealth levels globally increase and travel becomes even more accessible.

Conscious tourism will filter into solutions to tackle over-tourism, such as actively seeking destinations with lower arrival numbers, or which are better developed to cater for large volumes, the agency analysts say.

"We also anticipate governments and other industry players to take moves to address over-tourism. Between now and 2025, we anticipate quotas, access fees and seeking to remarket (less focus on mass-market tourism), which could see the develop of ‘prime’ destinations, where tourism is only, or more, accessible to arrivals from higher income nations or those within higher incomes brackets," they noted.

Venice, for example already bans cruise ships over more than 25,000 tonnes from accessing the Giudecca canal and in 2023, the city launched a system where day trippers are required to book in advance and entry prices differ based on how busy the city is.

"Out to 2050, the industry will seek longer-term solutions, developing and marketing new destination offerings that are spread throughout a market, as opposed to concentrated within tourism 'hubs'," the agency says.

Mainland China will remain a key market for the global tourism sector out to 2050, but risks are starting to be noted with this market. Covid-19 restrictions on movement within China were some of the most drastic witnessed globally and it will take time for outbound tourism to recover from the market’s January 2023 reopening.

"The severity of the government’s response has highlighted to the travel sector how a key source of tourists can be removed quickly and its impact. There have also been historic examples of the government of China stemming outbound travel due to geopolitical reasons, in 2017 for example China halted tours to South Korea due to the latter’s decision to host a US missile-defence system," the agency says.

Its experts believe that the themes of technology and an ageing demographic will lead to the evolution of two megatrend themes within tourism; the rise of the digital nomad and the growing importance of silver travellers. They also overlap with the rise of sustainability within the industry, as consumers seek to travel less frequently and stay for longer.

"The evolution of digital nomad pre-dates Covid-19, but the pandemic has fast tracked its evolution, from a niche option available to those within the freelance economy, to those that are now able to work remotely either for long or short periods of time. Increasingly, firms across finance, tech, legal and consulting are incorporating the ability to ‘work from anywhere’ for set time periods for their workforce. Over the megatrend period we believe this trend will become an established part of work/life balance and key stakeholders in the tourism sector are already preparing their offerings to adapt to this trend," Fitch Solutions notes.